0:00
/
0:00
Quick Summary
0:00
/
0:00
Indian Economic Update
Gross Tax Revenue collection during April–August 2023 increased 16.5% YoY led by robust Income Tax collection, while other heads ...viz. Corporate Tax, CGST and Customs Duty also recorded healthy growth rates

India’s Current Account deficit widened to USD 9.2 billion (1.1% of the GDP) in Q1FY24 from USD 1.3 billion (0.2% of the GDP) in the preceding quarter but was lower than USD 17.9 billion (2.1% of the GDP) in Q1FY23. Sequential increase was led by Higher Goods Trade deficit (USD 56.6 billion) and decline in net inflows of services and remittances

As per the Chief Economic Advisor of India, the inclusion of IGB in the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Debt Index has the potential to make the Rupee stronger and reduce borrowing cost

The Finance Ministry will hold a series of meetings with various ministries and departments starting early October, to finalise the revised budget estimates for FY24 and FY25 budget numbers

Centre will borrow INR 6.55 trillion (42.45% of INR 15.43 trillion) in H2 of FY24 through dated securities, including INR 200 billion through issuance of Sovereign Green Bonds. Additionally, it will continue to exercise the greenhouse option to retain an additional subscription of up to INR 20 billion

Centre is considering spending INR 600 billion to provide subsidised loans for Small Urban Housing over the next five years, two government sources told Reuters

S&P Global Ratings has maintained its forecast for India's FY24 growth at 6%, citing a global economic slowdown, sub-normal monsoon and delayed rate hikes, while retaining FY25 and FY26 estimates at 6.9% and 7% respectively.

Read More

Global Update
Rating agency Moody’s warns that a US Government shutdown would harm the country's credit, while adding, “Fiscal policymaking is less... robust in the US than in many Aaa-rated peers and another shutdown would be further evidence of this weakness”

ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary, to tame consumer prices

BOJ policymakers agreed on the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary settings but were divided on how soon the central bank could end negative interest rates, according to the minutes of the July meeting.

Read More

Equity
The benchmark equity indices traded lower amidst the Asian market, following the expectation of higher interest rates and rising oil ...prices after crude extended a one-year high. Meanwhile, China's real estate firm Evergrande's shares have been suspended. We expect domestic indices to remain flat amidst mixed global cues.

During the week Sensex declined 0.27% to close at 65828.41 while Nifty lost 0.18% to close at 19638.30

Read More

Debt
During the week, Government Bond yields traded flat. Yields are expected to rise higher as higher crude oil prices, uncertainty over ...US interest rates and technical difficulties due to sudden changes in trading holidays sent participants rushing to sell securities. Meanwhile, a primary auction of IGB worth INR 390 billion was brought forward with bond supply hitting the market.

The 10Y benchmark G-Sec was trading at a yield of 7.21% on 29 Sep, 2023 at 15:45 IST

Read More

Oil
Brent crude prices traded higher at USD 96/barrel, surging to their highest in 2023 due to tightening supply concerns. Crude stocks at ... Cushing, Oklahoma, fell to their lowest since July 2022. EIA report revealed that crude inventories in the US fell by a much bigger-than-expected 2.17 million barrels last week. Russia is considering restricting grey fuel exports and raising fuel export duty for resellers in addition to the existing ban on export of gasoline and diesel.

Brent was trading at $92.53 on 29 Sep, 2023 at 15:45 IST

Read More

Gold
Gold prices traded lower as the dollar index reached a 10-month high and treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007 as a result ...of a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario. US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was maintained at a strong rate and the jobless claims rose slightly but were lower than expected. However, this did not reflect in the gold prices.

Gold was trading at $1870.85 Per Ounce on 29 Sep, 2023 at 15:45 IST

Read More

Currency
The USD/INR pair remained flat this week amidst a gain in UST yields and elevated oil prices across the globe. Investors will await the US... quarterly GDP number and the FTSE Russell inclusion of India in its EM Government Bond Index. Any sharp movement in the Rupee will be intervened by RBI.

USD/INR was trading at 82.09 on 29 Sep, 2023 at 15:45 IST

Read More

 
Sensex
65828.41
-0.27%
During the week Sensex declined 0.27% to close at 65828.41 while Nifty lost 0.18% to close at 19638.30
 
Bond Yields
7.21%

The 10Y benchmark G-Sec was trading at a yield of 7.21% on 29 Sep, 2023 at 15:45 IST
 
Source: ICICI Bank Research, Private Banking Investment Strategy Team, Bloomberg and CRISIL.
Disclaimer: The information set out herein has been prepared by ICICI Bank in good faith and from sources deemed reliable. ICICI Bank does not provide any assurance as regards the accuracy of such information. ICICI Bank does not accept any responsibility for any errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise or for any direct or indirect loss / claim/ damage caused to any person, arising out of or in relation to the use of information communicated herein.