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| Indian Economic Update
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The growth of India’s 8 core industries was stable at 4.3% YoY in May 2023. On MoM basis, core index expanded by 3.5% in May 2023...
Bringing down inflation and stabilising inflation expectations will revive consumer spending and boost corporate revenues and profitability. This is the best incentive for private capex, the RBI said in its latest monthly bulletin, stressing upon the need for a “continuous vigil” on the price movements
Nearly four-fifths of the INR 2,000 denomination currency notes (worth INR 2.72 trillion), have been deposited in banks leaving INR 0.84 trillion of such notes in circulation, RBI said
India's services exports in May climbed 7.7% YoY to USD 27.06 billion, while imports rose by 2% to USD 15.5 billion, as per the provisional data released by RBI
The government today kept the interest rate on General Provident Fund unchanged at 7.1% for the July-September quarter of the current financial year
S&P Global Ratings said that Indian companies were in "good credit shape" due to strong growth in the country's economy and accommodative corporate balance sheets
Concerns over the performance of southwest monsoons this year eased to a large extent on Thursday, with rainfall deficiency declining to just 5% from over 40% a fortnight ago.
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| Global Update
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FOMC minutes highlight that “almost all participants noted in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases ...in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate”
Saudi Arabia will prolong its unilateral oil production cut to August by 1 mbpd, keeping a lid on supply amid persisting fears over the global economy. Its OPEC+ ally Russia also announced fresh curbs on exports
The J.P. Morgan Global Services PMI Index posted 54.0 in June, down from 55.5 in May, its lowest reading since February. The J.P. Morgan Global PMI Composite Index posted 52.7 in June, a four-month low and down from May's one-and-a-half-year high of 54.4.
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| Equity
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The benchmark equity indices opened higher this week tracking Asian and US markets. Domestic indices continue their momentum ...post breaking their all-time highs. The latest inflation data showed US PCE index prices softening in May, which supported risk sentiments across markets. Domestic indices are expected to consolidate in the near term with focus on US PMI services and US Initial Jobless Claims.
During the week Sensex gained 0.87% to close at 65280.45 while Nifty gained 0.74% to close at 19331.80
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| Debt
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During the week, bonds traded in a small range. US bond yields remain unchanged despite falling US PCE index data as Fed chair ...Powell continues to guide the market for further hikes. IGB prices continue with downside bias weighed by higher global yields and higher domestic supply. Australia’s central bank kept the policy rate unchanged. The T-bill auction saw weaker than expected cut-offs.
The 10Y benchmark G-Sec was trading at a yield of 7.16% on 07 July, 2023 at 15:50 IST
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| Oil
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During the week, oil prices traded higher underpinned by supply cuts from major oil producers and a large drawdown in US crude... stockpiles. Meanwhile, a raft of PMI data pointed to weakening manufacturing activity in major economies, clouding the outlook for global growth and energy demands.
Brent was trading at $76.98 on 07 July, 2023 at 15:50 IST
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| Gold
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This week, Gold traded flat as the market reacted to the latest FOMC minutes, which showed almost all Fed officials anticipating the... need for further interest rate increases. Other major central banks are also expected to tighten further. However, investors continue to worry about the health of the global economy.
Gold was trading at $1915.93 Per Ounce on 07 July, 2023 at 15:50 IST
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| Currency
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USD/INR pair traded almost flat this week. US dollar strength continues to remain anchored as stronger US economic data ...continue to support expectations of further US rate hikes. RBI intervention is expected to curb any sharp volatility. We expect the pair to move in sync with the overall global risk sentiment.
USD/INR was trading at 82.74 on 07 July, 2023 at 15:50 IST
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| Sensex |
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During the week Sensex gained 0.87% to close at 65280.45 while Nifty gained 0.74% to close at 19331.80
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| Bond Yields |
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The 10Y benchmark G-Sec was trading at a yield of 7.16% on 07 July, 2023 at 15:50 IST
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Source: ICICI Bank Research, Private Banking Investment Strategy Team, Bloomberg and CRISIL.
Disclaimer:
The information set out herein has been prepared by ICICI Bank in good
faith and from sources deemed reliable. ICICI Bank does not provide any
assurance as regards the accuracy of such information. ICICI Bank does
not accept any responsibility for any errors whether caused by
negligence or otherwise or for any direct or indirect loss / claim/
damage caused to any person, arising out of or in relation to the use of
information communicated herein.
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